Long ago, there was a widowed Chinese farmer. The farmer and his only son labored through the cold winds of winter and scorching rays of summer with their last remaining horse. One day, the son forgot to lock the stable gate and the horse ran away.
When their neighbors learned what happened, they came to the farmer and said, “What a terrible event this is! Without your horse, you won’t be able to maintain the farm. What a failure that your son did not lock the gate properly! This is a great tragedy!”
The farmer replied, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”
The next day, the missing horse returned to the farmer’s stable, bringing along with it six wild horses. The farmer’s son locked the gate of the stable firmly behind all seven horses.
When the neighbors learned what happened, they came to the farmer and said, “What an amazing turn of events! With seven horses, you’ll be able to maintain the farm with three of them and sell the rest for a huge profit. What a blessing!”
The farmer replied, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”
The next day the farmer’s son was breaking in one of the wild horses. The son was thrown from the horse, fell onto some rocks, and broke his leg. When the neighbors learned what happened, they came to the farmer and said, “What a great sadness this is! Now your son will be unable to help you. What a failure to break in the horse properly! What a terrible tragedy!”
The farmer replied, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”
The next day, a general from the Imperial Chinese Army arrived to conscript all the young men of the village into the army. Their assignment was to fight on the front lines of a battle against a terrifying enemy of overwhelming force. The farmer’s son, because of his broken leg, was not taken.
When neighbors learned what happened, they came to the farmer and said, “What a great joy! Your son avoided facing certain death on the front lines of the battle. What a blessing!”
The farmer replied, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”
I love this story because it points out so accurately that we never truly know the long term consequences of an event. Just because we assume an event is positive or negative doesn’t mean that’s actually the case.
There is always a tradeoff. Nothing is entirely what it seems. The law of unintended consequences always prevails. And this is what diehard political activists and religious zealots fail to understand. All actions have consequences, and yet, the second and third order affects of those actions are often unseen until much later down the road.
There are no solutions. Only tradeoffs.